What it will take for TikTok to survive in the US

TikTok is on the brink of a ban in the United States, with just ten days remaining for a resolution. If the Supreme Court doesn't intervene by January 19th, and ByteDance does not divest TikTok, tech giants like Apple and Google will be compelled to remove the app from their stores.

The outcome is expected to become clearer after TikTok and the Department of Justice present their arguments to the Supreme Court. The key issue revolves around whether the law banning TikTok infringes on First Amendment rights. The Supreme Court has yet to pause the ban, leaving options open post-hearing.

Here’s an in-depth look at TikTok's possible future, focusing on potential interventions by Trump, China's response, and prospective buyers if TikTok is sold.

TikTok's chances in the Supreme Court

TikTok’s hope rests on several scenarios to avoid the impending ban:

• The Supreme Court may strike down the law, extend deadlines, or return the case to lower courts.
• President Biden might extend the sale timeline by up to 90 days.
• Incoming President Trump could halt law enforcement after his swearing-in.
• Congress could pass new legislation repealing the existing mandate.
• TikTok might negotiate a "qualified divestiture" from ByteDance, reducing foreign ownership stakes.

The Supreme Court faces a complex decision balancing free speech with national security. The DC Circuit Court suggested the law might withstand First Amendment challenges, presenting an uphill battle for TikTok's legal team.

The justices will assess if the "Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act" unjustly curbs free speech. While the DOJ defends it as crucial for national security, TikTok argues it jeopardizes freedom of expression.

Professor Saurabh Vishnubhakat indicates the diverse DC Circuit panel could mirror potential Supreme Court deliberations, possibly favoring national security stances. The delay in the court’s decision does not bode well for TikTok, as a majority is required to impede the law.

Professor Sahar Abi-Hassan predicts the court might uphold the statute due to its broad bipartisan support, though a narrow ruling might avoid setting sweeping precedents.

What Trump could do

If the law is upheld, Trump has vowed to save TikTok through DOJ non-enforcement or brokering a sale. This could bypass Congressional intent, but legal complexities and potential Supreme Court orders could limit such actions.

Reviving a previous deal involving Oracle and Walmart could be on the table, though cooperation from China is uncertain.

What China could do

China has the final say on any sale of TikTok absent US government mandates. While prospective buyers await China’s decision, Santa Clara University’s Long Le doubts China will approve a sale, given TikTok’s strategic value.

TikTok is crucial for ByteDance's global standing, and China may prefer waiting it out, challenging US policy through non-cooperation.

Chinese spokesperson Wang Wenbin previously warned against US actions disrupting order and investor confidence.

Who might buy TikTok and what it would look like

If a sale proceeds, US tech giants may be barred from purchase, paving the way for companies like Walmart or Oracle. Project Liberty, spearheaded by Frank McCourt, is a contender, aiming to maintain user experience without ByteDance's algorithm.

McCourt believes preserving TikTok’s brand without proprietary algorithms aligns with US interests while respecting China's stipulations.

Despite current indications to the contrary, McCourt holds that changing geopolitical landscapes could eventually favor a sale, hoping TikTok retains user value beyond January 19th potential market exile.